Pandion Healthcare: Education & Advocacy recently held a board meeting in partnership with the Hospital Association of New York State (HANYS) that focused on one central question – what will healthcare look like in the future?
The consensus was that although technology will improve, hospitals will still face a myriad of challenges. We predict that:
- Young people will want to use technology. More than three-quarters of Americans own a smartphone (77%), including the vast majority of adults ages 18-29 (94%).[1] Young adults will access their health records online and check-in for doctor appointments from their phones. In addition, doctors will use telemedicine to reach their patients over the internet. More patients will use wearable technology to collect and analyze data.[2] We predict that the amount of technology in healthcare will significantly increase over time.
- There will be urgent cares on every corner. There are already urgent cares all over Rochester. According to Common Ground Health, the proliferation of urgent cares is being driven by consumers.[3] People don’t want to schedule an appointment during business hours; they want to be seen by a doctor as soon as possible when it’s convenient for them. In some cases, urgent cares help to decrease the number of patients with non-life-threatening illnesses in hospital emergency rooms.
- If trends continue, and the population in upstate New York declines, hospitals will suffer. Hospitals take care of people, and when the population decreases, hospitals are threatened. Between 2010 and 2017, the population in upstate New York fell by 93,000, or 3 percent. In Monroe County, the population remained stagnant over the past seven years. [4] Although New York City and its suburbs increased in population, upstate New York did not, and it could have significant long-term implications for area hospitals.
- Hospitals will be faced with staffing shortages. According to the American Nurses Association, more than 500,000 registered nurses are expected to retire by 2022, and more nurses will be needed to avoid a nursing shortage. [5] It will also be difficult for hospitals to compete for entry-level staff. Many people don’t want to work nights or weekends, and nurses are needed 24-7-365.
- Consolidation will continue, and NY hospitals could be threatened by out-of-state systems. Acquisitions allow health systems to reduce costs, offer additional services, and increase their footprint in a local market. [6] However, some out-of-state health systems have acquired more than one hundred hospitals (Ascension Health System in St. Louis has 141 hospitals).[7] Local hospital executives worry that out-of-state hospital systems will try to take over hospital systems in New York.
- The future of Medicare and Medicaid are uncertain. A large portion of hospital reimbursement is tied to Medicaid and Medicare, which do not fully cover the cost of care. Medicaid only pays 73 cents for each dollar of care, and Medicare only pays 95 cents. In addition, the fate of Medicare and Medicaid hangs in the balance with each change in administration. With proposals such as Medicare for All and the New York Health Act, hospitals face a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to the reimbursement of care.
- Tech giants could disrupt the healthcare system as we know it. The announcement that Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JP Morgan Chase are teaming up to launch a new healthcare company sent shock waves through the healthcare world. Although details are still scarce, they’ve hired a CEO and COO, and signaled that they’re serious about using big-data analysis to cut healthcare costs.[8] The tech giants could cause an earthquake that affects the entire healthcare system.[9]
Regardless of the changing healthcare landscape or the challenges that lie ahead, Pandion Healthcare: Education & Advocacy will continue to advocate for the 17 hospitals in our region every step of the way. As part of our mission to provide educational opportunities to both our members and the Greater Rochester community, we will address several of these issues at our 2018 Healthcare Innovations Conference on Nov. 14. Click here to view the day's agenda and to register for a full-day of presentations focused on new technologies in healthcare. We look forward to seeing you there!
[1] http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheet/mobile/
[2] https://rbj.net/2018/09/12/smartphones-telemedicine-making-health-care-more-portable/
[3] https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2018/01/18/rochester-ny-urgent-care-rochester-regional-ur-medicine/1007437001/
[4] https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2018/03/22/upstate-ny-has-population-problem/448880002/
[5] https://www.nursingworld.org/practice-policy/workforce/
[6] https://revcycleintelligence.com/features/how-hospital-merger-and-acquisition-activity-is-changing-healthcare
[7] https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-transactions-and-valuation/5-largest-nonprofit-health-systems-with-the-most-hospitals.html
[8] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-buffett-healthcare/amazon-berkshire-jpmorgans-healthcare-venture-names-coo-idUSKCN1LK2JX
[9] https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertpearl/2018/06/25/atul-gawande-ceo/#31189bcd369b
Mary Beth Walker is the Senior Assistant to the President: Communications and Government Relations at Pandion Healthcare: Education and Advocacy. Prior to joining Pandion, she worked at the U.S. House of Representatives, the New York State Assembly and at a national not-for-profit organization.